A Generation at Risk: How COVID-19 School Closures Are Shaping the Future of Global Education

Redacción HC
25/09/2023

When schools closed their doors to slow the spread of COVID-19, more than 1.6 billion students worldwide were affected. What was initially seen as a temporary disruption has become one of the largest educational crises in modern history, disproportionately impacting low- and middle-income countries. A joint report by UNESCO, UNICEF, and the World Bank warns that the learning losses triggered by prolonged school closures may weaken an entire generation’s potential—academically, economically, and socially.

The Real Cost of Learning Loss

The question at the heart of the report is urgent:

What have children lost in terms of learning, skills, and future opportunities due to school closures—and how long will the damage last?

Even before the pandemic, many education systems were under strain. COVID-19 not only magnified existing inequalities, but also introduced new obstacles—from digital divides to mental health challenges—placing millions of students at risk of never returning to school or achieving foundational literacy and numeracy skills.

Data Across 142 Countries: A Sobering Picture

This global report draws on education and household data from 142 countries, including detailed case studies from Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa, and the United States. Using a mix of surveys, assessments, and economic modeling, the authors estimated learning equivalents lost, factoring in the quality of remote education and the length of school closures.

In countries with limited digital infrastructure, the results are particularly devastating. More than 50% of children in low-income nations had no access to effective remote learning, either due to lack of devices, internet, or adult support.

Estimates show that students in these countries may have lost up to 50% of their expected learning, especially in key areas like math and reading. In Latin America, delays equivalent to half a school year or more were reported—an educational setback with long-term consequences.

A Crisis of Learning and Opportunity

A Surge in Learning Poverty

Before the pandemic, 53% of children in developing countries were unable to read and understand a basic text by age 10—a measure known as learning poverty. Now, projections suggest this figure may exceed 70%, a number that underscores the scope of the crisis.

Widening Inequalities

Marginalized students—especially those in rural areas, with disabilities, or from low-income households—faced the steepest barriers. Girls, in particular, were at risk of early dropout due to increased domestic responsibilities, early marriage, or pregnancy during lockdowns.

Long-Term Economic Fallout

The economic modeling is equally alarming. According to the report, this generation of students could see an average 10% drop in lifetime earnings, resulting in an estimated global loss of $17 trillion in productivity by the end of the century.

Mental Health and Social Development

The cost is not just academic or financial. Students also reported increases in anxiety, depression, and disengagement from school, especially adolescents who felt abandoned by their educational systems. The prolonged absence of peer interaction and classroom structure disrupted crucial developmental milestones.

What Must Be Done Now

The report calls for urgent, targeted interventions to recover lost learning and prevent the erosion of human capital. Its recommendations fall under four key strategies:

1. Learning Recovery

Governments must implement accelerated learning programs focused on foundational skills, including literacy and numeracy, paired with personalized tutoring and remedial support.

2. Safe and Sustained Reopening

Schools should be the last to close and the first to reopen during future emergencies. Decision-making must weigh the irreversible consequences of lost learning, particularly in contexts where school is a lifeline.

3. Strategic Investment

Governments must increase public education funding, with an emphasis on equitable digital infrastructure, teacher training for hybrid models, and resources for underserved communities.

4. Monitoring and Equity

Data systems need to track who is falling behind and why. Special attention should be given to vulnerable groups, including girls, students with disabilities, and indigenous populations. In countries like Peru, where over 230,000 students dropped out in 2020, real-time tracking is critical for re-enrollment and retention.

Why Latin America Must Act Swiftly

The crisis has exposed the fragility of education systems across Latin America. Countries such as Peru, Bolivia, and Mexico experienced some of the longest school closures globally, making them particularly vulnerable to long-term setbacks in learning and development.

The report warns that without bold, inclusive recovery plans, millions of children in the region may never return to the classroom, perpetuating cycles of poverty and exclusion.

Final Thoughts: Turning a Crisis Into a Turning Point

While the pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to global education, it also presents an opportunity. By reimagining more resilient, inclusive, and adaptive education systems, governments can not only repair the damage—but build stronger foundations for the future.

This report is a call to action. The choices made today will shape what kind of future awaits the children of the COVID-19 era.

Topics of interest

Education Health