Are Protected Areas Still Enough? Climate and Land-Use Changes Threaten Their Future Effectiveness

Redacción HC
06/07/2025

For decades, terrestrial protected areas (PAs) have served as the backbone of global biodiversity conservation strategies. These zones are intended to preserve habitats, safeguard water sources, and capture carbon—benefits critical to both ecosystems and human well-being. But a new study published in Nature Climate Change casts doubt on whether these sanctuaries will remain effective in the face of accelerating climate and land-use changes.

According to researchers Ernest F. Asamoah, Linda J. Beaumont, and Joseph M. Maina, the effectiveness of current protected areas could significantly decline by 2050, especially in high-risk biomes such as tropical forests and grasslands. Their findings suggest a fundamental rethinking of how we design and manage conservation areas in a rapidly changing world.

Climate and Land-Use Pressure: A Dual Threat

Using climate projections and land-use data, the study quantified two major pressures on protected areas: climate velocity (how quickly temperature zones are shifting) and land-use instability (changes in land cover from human activities). These metrics were overlaid with the global network of terrestrial PAs to assess vulnerability.

The results are stark:

More than 27% of global protected areas are projected to face both high climate velocity and high land-use instability by 2050.

In practical terms, this means many PAs will no longer offer the stable conditions needed for species to survive unless conservation strategies account for mobility and dynamic adaptation.

The Numbers Behind the Risk

The study uses projections from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs):

• SSP1-2.6 (low emissions scenario): PAs are expected to experience an average climate velocity of 3.1 km/year.
• SSP5-8.5 (high emissions scenario): That average rises dramatically to 5.4 km/year.

To put that in perspective, the average dispersal speed of mammals is ~1.4 km/year. Even birds and insects, often thought to be more mobile, have median ranges under 2 km/year.

“If species can't keep up with shifting climates, even the best-protected areas may become ecological traps,” the authors warn (nature.com).

Biomes at Greater Risk

Some biomes stand out as particularly vulnerable:

• Tropical humid forests, such as those in the Amazon and Central Africa
• Grasslands and savannas, especially where human land use is expanding
• Protected areas under less strict management regimes, where outside pressures are more likely to penetrate

These zones not only host high biodiversity but are also critical for regulating global carbon and water cycles. Their degradation would have global consequences far beyond their borders.

Redesigning Conservation for a Moving Target

The idea of PAs as static “refuges” is increasingly obsolete. Species are on the move, and the places meant to protect them may no longer offer suitable conditions. The study calls for:

1. Adaptive PA planning: Policies must incorporate climate and land-use dynamics, not just current ecosystem values.
2. Ecological corridors: Connectivity between protected areas must be strengthened so species can migrate in response to environmental change.
3. Monitoring and real-time data: Managers need updated tools and data to track ecosystem shifts and respond proactively.

These ideas are not just theoretical. They align with international frameworks such as the CBD’s Target 3, which aims for 30% of land to be protected by 2030—but also emphasizes “ecological representation” and “connectivity.”

Local Impacts, Global Relevance

The study carries special relevance for Latin American countries, where rich ecosystems like the Amazon, Chocó, and the Atlantic Forest are simultaneously experiencing climate shifts and human land conversion. These regions should be prioritized for:

• Expansion or adjustment of PA boundaries
• Restoration of degraded buffer zones
• Engagement of local communities in co-management and monitoring

What’s at Stake?

If we fail to respond, the very strategy we depend on to preserve biodiversity may become ineffective. Conservation cannot remain frozen in time when the planet is changing faster than ever.

“Protected areas can no longer be seen as fixed fortresses,” the study concludes. “They must become flexible, networked, and responsive to change.”

It’s a call not just for more protected land—but for better, smarter protection in an era where nature is on the move.

Topics of interest

Biodiversity