Not All Trees Cleared Become Farms: A New Look at Agriculture and Tropical Deforestation

Redacción HC
10/11/2023

Tropical deforestation is accelerating at a troubling pace, with devastating consequences for climate stability, biodiversity, and local livelihoods. While it’s widely accepted that agriculture is the dominant force behind forest loss in the tropics, a crucial question has remained unclear: How much of the land cleared for agriculture is actually used for productive farming?

A landmark study published in Science in 2022 offers new insight into this issue. Conducted by an international team of researchers led by Florence Pendrill (Chalmers University of Technology), Toby A. Gardner (Stockholm Environment Institute), and Patrick Meyfroidt (UCLouvain), the study disentangles complex satellite and national data to quantify the relationship between agriculture and tropical deforestation. The findings are both enlightening and alarming: only 45–65% of land deforested for agriculture ends up in active use, revealing the hidden inefficiencies—and possible speculative motivations—behind land clearing.

A Quantitative Breakthrough in Measuring Forest Loss

To understand how and why deforestation happens, the study synthesized data from multiple sources:

• Satellite imagery (Global Forest Change by Hansen et al.) revealed an average annual tropical tree cover loss of 10.6 million hectares between 2011 and 2015.
• FAO-FRA statistics helped benchmark national land use trends.
• Regional studies, such as those by Curtis et al. and Pendrill et al., were used to classify forest loss drivers and distinguish between different forms of agriculture—such as shifting cultivation, pasture expansion, and industrial crops.

Two key methodologies were compared:

1. High-resolution classifier models, which attributed deforestation to the most dominant driver at each site.
2. Land-use balance models, which matched national crop production data with forest cover change to infer probable causes of deforestation.

The consensus from both approaches was clear: between 6.4 and 8.8 million hectares of tropical forest were lost annually to agriculture-related activities during the study period.

A Hidden Gap Between Deforestation and Agricultural Production

Here’s the twist: while most deforestation happens in agricultural landscapes, only about half of the cleared land becomes actively farmed. The remaining 35–55% either remains unused, is abandoned, or is lost to fire, erosion, or speculative clearing.

This discrepancy underscores a critical distinction between “agriculture-driven deforestation” and “deforestation for active agriculture”. In Latin America alone, the study estimates a gap of 1–2 million hectares annually between forest loss attributed to agriculture and actual conversion into productive farmland.

This gap has far-reaching implications. Not only does it represent a waste of carbon-rich forest ecosystems, but it also suggests that land speculation and weak governance may be major drivers of forest clearing, especially in regions with unclear land tenure or lax enforcement.

Who and What Are Driving This Land Use?

The study also breaks down forest loss by crop type and destination:

• Pasture expansion accounts for about 50% of agriculture-driven deforestation, reflecting the growing global demand for meat.
• Soybean and oil palm plantations contribute another 20% or more, especially in South America and Southeast Asia.
• Other crops—including cocoa, coffee, cassava, maize, and rice—fill in the rest, with regional variations.

When it comes to demand origin:

• Roughly 75% of agricultural deforestation is linked to domestic consumption, not international trade.
• Only 20–35% is associated with export-oriented commodities, such as soy, beef, and palm oil.

This challenges the common narrative that global supply chains are solely to blame. Local demand, especially for pasture and staple crops, is a major but often overlooked factor.

Rethinking Forest Policies Beyond Supply Chains

The researchers argue that addressing deforestation requires more than cleaning up international supply chains. Key recommendations include:

1. Territorial governance reform: Address speculative land clearing by strengthening land tenure systems and enforcement.
2. Better data: Improve deforestation mapping, especially in Africa and dry tropical forests where data is sparse.
3. Domestic demand regulation: National food systems, especially meat and cereal consumption, must be part of deforestation strategies.
4. Temporal tracking: Incorporate time lags between deforestation and land use conversion to improve attribution models.

As the authors write, "Efforts to address tropical deforestation must focus not only on global markets, but also on local political and economic contexts that enable forest loss without production gain."

The Latin American Context: Clearing Without Cultivation

Latin America, especially countries like Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru, plays a prominent role in these dynamics. Much of the forest loss attributed to pasture expansion does not result in productive use, especially where land is cleared speculatively for future agriculture or real estate value.

This has profound implications for Amazon conservation and rural development. Strengthening land use planning, community rights, and enforcement mechanisms could curb speculative clearing and align agricultural growth with sustainability goals.

Conclusion: When Forests Fall but Farms Don’t Follow

This study reveals a troubling inefficiency at the heart of tropical deforestation. While agriculture is the main engine of forest loss, not all cleared land is put to productive use—raising important questions about policy effectiveness, economic motivations, and land governance.

If tropical countries and their partners are serious about ending deforestation, they must move beyond simplistic solutions and tackle the structural drivers of forest loss, including speculation, land tenure insecurity, and poorly regulated domestic markets.

As the global climate crisis intensifies, every hectare of forest spared matters. And it’s not just about what we farm—but what we choose to leave standing.

Topics of interest

Biodiversity Climate