The Amazon at a Crossroads: Can the World’s Largest Rainforest Survive the Century?

The Amazon rainforest, often called the “lungs of the planet,” is facing one of the most critical challenges in its history: the risk of crossing an irreversible tipping point. A recent analysis published in Nature (Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Flores et al., 2024) warns that the combined pressures of climate change, deforestation, fires, and land degradation may push vast portions of the forest into a permanent state of collapse.

This article unpacks the findings of the study, explains the science behind them, and outlines what is at stake for Latin America and the global climate system.

A System Under Pressure

The central question posed by the study is whether the Amazon forest could undergo a “critical transition” — an abrupt, possibly irreversible shift into alternative states such as degraded forests or savanna-like ecosystems.

The stakes are enormous. The Amazon stores between 150 and 200 petagrams of carbon (Pg C), regulates rainfall across South America, and supports the livelihoods of millions of people. If this ecological system collapses, the consequences will extend far beyond the region, accelerating climate change worldwide.

How Scientists Studied the Risk

The interdisciplinary research team, involving scientists from Brazil, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US, used three main approaches:

1. Paleoclimate and biogeographic records that reveal the forest’s resilience to past environmental changes.
2. Satellite and field observations documenting declining forest resilience since the early 2000s.
3. Climate and ecosystem models (including CMIP6 projections) that simulate future shifts in rainfall, temperature, and drought duration.

By integrating these sources, the researchers mapped hotspots where deforestation, fragmentation, and fire overlap, exposing regions most at risk of ecosystem breakdown.

Findings: Up to 47% of the Forest at Risk

The analysis delivers a stark warning: between 10% and 47% of Amazon forests could be exposed to compound disturbances by 2050, depending on emission scenarios and land-use practices.

Key physical findings include:

• Carbon storage: The forest holds 150–200 Pg C, equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO₂ emissions. Large-scale loss would significantly raise atmospheric CO₂.
• Climate shifts: Models project longer dry seasons — up to 30 extra days — and annual maximum temperature increases of 2–4 °C across parts of the basin by mid-century.
• Water stress: Higher vapor pressure deficits increase tree mortality risk, fueling fires and degrading resilience.

The authors describe three possible trajectories for disturbed forests:

1. Recovery through active restoration and fire management.
2. Degradation into ecosystems with lower biodiversity and carbon storage.
3. Savannization, a permanent shift with lasting biodiversity and climate impacts.

Importantly, the study emphasizes that collapse is driven not by a single factor but by the synergy of multiple stressors acting together.

Implications for Latin America and Beyond

The collapse of Amazon resilience would trigger cascading effects:

• Global climate acceleration: Release of stored carbon would drive further warming.
• Regional water crisis: Reduced evapotranspiration would decrease rainfall, threatening agriculture in Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina.
• Social vulnerability: Indigenous and rural communities would face heightened risks to food security, water supply, and cultural survival.

What Can Be Done to Prevent Collapse?

Despite the alarming scenarios, the authors stress that it is still possible to preserve a functional Amazon. Immediate actions include:

1. Halting deforestation and degradation by enforcing land-use policies and recognizing Indigenous land rights.
2. Investing in ecological restoration with a focus on biological corridors that maintain connectivity.
3. Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions, since climate warming amplifies droughts and fire risks.

Hotspot areas with high fragmentation and fire vulnerability should be prioritized for interventions, as they act as “leverage points” to prevent wider systemic transitions. Strengthening satellite and on-the-ground monitoring is also crucial for detecting early-warning signals of resilience loss.

Conclusion: The Urgency of Now

The Amazon is at a historic crossroads. Whether it remains the world’s most important tropical rainforest or tips into widespread collapse will depend on choices made in the next few decades. The findings are clear: protecting the Amazon is not just an environmental issue but a social, economic, and global climate imperative.

The window of opportunity is closing, but it has not yet closed. Acting now — through bold governance, restoration, and emission reductions — is the only way to ensure the Amazon continues to sustain life on Earth.

Topics of interest

Biodiversity